Yes, on a basic
level this is true. Whenever we have the nuts we should bet/raise/reraise, whenever we have nothing we should fold. If we have nothing and feel like we can make our opponent fold a better hand enough of the time, we should bet as a
bluff.
However, theres another
level of poker that goes beyond this one hand. Not only does your opponent have a range, but you do as well. Not only do you want to make the best play with THIS hand, THIS time, but you want to make the most money with your range, EVERY time. You want to make the most profitable plays when you are in this spot. You want the average EV of your play with your range in this
spot to be as high as possible.
A pretty common example of this was in an infamous Samoleus/EmpireMaker2 thread on 2p2 a while back. Samoleus criticized EM2 for 3-betting QJs in
button vs blind scenarios. His reasoning was that "QJs has too much value in calling." He believed that it was more profitable to call QJs than to waste it on a
3-bet.
The other less obvious reason why "QJs has too much value in calling" is that EM2's
range consists of subdivided ranges in which he 3-bets/calls/folds, and putting QJs into the 3-bet
range reduces the number of profitable plays he makes as a whole.
Renton Theorem:
In any no limit hold'em scenario where there is money left to be bet, hero's range is divided into subranges A, B, C, and D, where:
A = hero's 'nut' range consisting of hands to be aggressively bet/raised for value.
B = the range of hands that aren't as strong as range A and benefit from passive play and/or pot control.
C = the range of hands that have a nominal amount of value, but can stand little or no action.
D = hands with little or no value
The four ranges are determined by the resultant play that is optimal for the range as a whole.
Subranges A, B, C, and D are directly adjacent in terms of playability/strength (i.e. the bottom of 'A' borders with the
top of 'B'). All of the hands in a given subrange should be played the same (barring randomizing your play), and this is how the
range is defined.
What do I mean by "optimal for the
range as a whole?" Is that different from "optimal in a vaccum? Let's start with an example similar to the QJs above.
Example 1:
Thinking opposition opens a wide
range (we'll say 30% of holdings) and we are on the
button. We have 3 ways of exploiting this player:
1.
3-bet for value
2.
3-bet as a
bluff
3.
call and
exploit postflop
We don't have many
reads on this player but we can safely assume that like most players, he is going to fold his
open to 3-bets an exploitably large amount.
So as an example within the example, lets say our hand is 98s. What is the optimal play in a vaccum?
Hard to say. Since we think our friend is going to
fold a ton to 3-bets, it is highly likely that 3-betting is optimal, due to a high amount of preflop fold equity. However, 98s is a great hand postflop, and can continue on a very high %age of flops, so we are also certain that its profitable to coldcall with. So do we 3-bet or call? Probably 3-bet if we feel that given gameflow he's gonna
fold 85% of time.
However, even if he folds a massive amount of the time, the best play for our entire
range is to
call.
In this situation our ranges are subdivided as follows:
A = {QQ+ AK}. These are hands we'd be glad to
stack off with, and should
3-bet for value and get it in.
B = {55-JJ, AJ-AQ, KQ,
suited broadways, suited
connectors, some 22-44}. These hands aren't comfortable stacking off and are certainly profitable to coldcall.
C = {22-44, gappers,
offsuit aces/broadways}. These are hands that are slightly too weak/unplayable to call, and we elect to
3-bet these as bluffs/semibluffs.
D = {the rest}. Have almost no value and we
fold.
We can play ranges A, B, and C profitably. So our duty, in order to maximize the amount we
exploit our opponent, is to make A + B + C add up to the highest possible percentage. 'A' is a static value range. 'B' consists of all the hands we feel we can profitably call that aren't in range 'A'. 'C' consists of the widest possible percentage of remaining hands that we can
3-bet and get away with it, and are chosen from hands just below 'B' strength due to maximizing value when called.
By 'get away with it' I mean that since we're up against thinking opposition, we want to play as aggressively as we can whilst avoiding exploitation at all costs. If
villain wizens up and starts
4-bet bluffing us, thats very bad, and we are no longer exploiting him without readjusting which takes time and causes us to make mistakes in the transition.
Example 2:
Seat 1: AmPHisbaenA ($414.25 in chips)
Seat 2: gl79 ($402.60 in chips)
Seat 3: Tnx4urMoney ($456.10 in chips)
Seat 4: Kodack ($186 in chips)
Seat 5: 69MadMike69 ($53.70 in chips)
Seat 6: jhndh541 ($106.05 in chips)
Seat 7: Renton555 ($524.60 in chips)
Seat 8: jfager007 ($394 in chips)
Seat 9: whaaatever ($253 in chips)
gl79: posts small
blind $2
Tnx4urMoney: posts big
blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Renton555 [9d 9c]
Kodack: folds
69MadMike69: folds
jhndh541: folds
Renton555: raises $8 to $12
jfager007: folds
whaaatever: calls $12
AmPHisbaenA: folds
gl79: folds
Tnx4urMoney: folds
***
FLOP *** [Ac 8s Jd]
Renton555: checks
whaaatever: bets $24
Renton555: folds
In this hand, betting the
flop is absolutely certainly profitable, as this flop bitchslaps our range and he has to
fold the vast majority of his. Betting may even be best. However, checking is profitable with 99, since he likely checks down worse pairs.
Without going too
deep into this, let me create the subranges.
A = {AJ, A8, AA, JJ, 88, AK, AQ, T9} Hands we bet and continue to a
raise.
B = {A2-AT, QQ-KK, Jx} Hands we check
call for
pot control and deception.
C = {77, 99, TT, 87ish} Hands we check
fold for
showdown value.
D = {
air} Hands we bet as a
bluff.
Even though betting 99 is profitable and maybe best, we prefer to bet all our
air and try to check down 99, and hence have a less exploitable cbet.
Extrapolating further:
Say we bet ranges A and D and get raised. Then we have a whole new
set of subranges.
A = {AJ, sets} Our nut
range, we 3-bet all in or
call and get it in on turns, depending on what we feel is most profitable.
B = {AK, AQ, A8, T9} We
call and reevaluate.
C = {
air like KcQc} We 3-bet as a bluff and shove turns we
improve.
D = {rest of
air} We
fold.
It goes on and on.
The Renton theorem is something I think good players think about a ton. I've never seen anything like this quantified very clearly, and only recently started seeing it this clearly myself. Hopefully this isn't totally redundant info to you guys.
gl